TAMIFLU (OSELTAMIVIR PHOSPHATE) MARKET ANALYSIS

Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) is an anti-viral drug which is indicated for the treatment of acute, uncomplicated influenza A and B as well as swine flu in patients two weeks of age and older and whose flu symptoms have not lasted for more than two days. The product is available in capsules or oral suspension.

Global Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market is estimated to be valued at US$ 889.2 million in 2022 and is expected to exhibit a CAGR of 1.2% during the forecast period (2022-2030).

Analysts’ Views on Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market:

The Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market's growth is expected to increase over the forecast period. This is due to the increasing prevalence of seasonal influenza cases globally, as well as increasing demand of Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) during the COVID-19 pandemic, due to its less side effects. Moreover, most of the pharmaceutical companies are launching generic versions of Tamiflu i.e., oseltamivir phosphate, which may drive the growth of the market, over the forecast period.

Figure 1.Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market Share (%), by Drug Type, 2022

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Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market- Driver

The increasing prevalence of diseases such as influenza A, influenza B, and Others

Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) is indicated for the treatment of influenza A, influenza B, and Swine Flu (H1N1 influenza). The increasing prevalence of influenza, globally, is expected to increase the growth of the global Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market, over the forecast period. For instance, in November 2021, according to an article published by the World Health Organization, in the year 2020, the global prevalence of influenza was 3 to 5 million cases of severe illness.

Moreover, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, October 2022, published incidence rates in percentage (%) for influenza for the seasons in  2017- 2018, 2018 - 2019 and 2019-2020 for different age groups in the U.S. The following table depicts the incidence rates for influenza among the U.S. population

Figure 2. Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market Share (%), by Region, 2022

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Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market- Regional Analysis

Among all regions, North America region is expected to dominate the market over the forecast period. This is attributed due to the North America hold 34.6% market share and increase in the storage of Tamiflu for the next influenza season North America region. For instance, on December 21, 2022, the U.S. government announced that the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), in collaboration with Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR), are storing additional supply of Tamiflu available in order to respond to an increased demand for the antiviral during the flu season in the year 2022. This was achieved through Strategic National Stockpile (SNS). The government will work with their Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response (ASPR) Regional Teams, in order to evaluate any requests for Tamiflu through the SNS, thus ensuring that states, territories, and tribes receive the assistance they need without affecting the nation’s preparedness for a future pandemic flu.

Europe region is expected to be the second largest region over the forecast period. Due to increasing prevalence of seasonal influenza in Europe. For instance, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC): 2022, estimated that the seasonal influenza causes 4 to 5 million symptomatic infections in the European Union every year and 15,000 to 7,000 European citizens die because of the causes associated with influenza.

Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market– Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic is expected to hamper the growth of the global Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market owning to the lockdown during COVID-19 pandemic. The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and lockdowns in various countries across the globe have impacted the financial status of businesses across all sectors. The private healthcare sector is one of the sectors, which has been majorly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown in various countries due to the COVID-19 pandemic has created an economic burden on the private healthcare sector. According to the Indian Journal of Medical Sciences published a report in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has affected the conduction of clinical trials due to the unavailability of trial site staff, restrictions for traveling, investigational product availability, and others.

According to National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) published a report on April 29, 2020, many clinical trials suspended trial enrollment to minimize the risk of contracting COVID-19, and this has led to the delay in the activation of new clinical trials. Moreover, many companies have already missed the follow-up for the patients already in trials. Product development has experienced disruption to adjust to remote-work environments and lab capacity is reduced. Clinical trials are also being severely affected by disruptions in both new enrollments and in keeping existing patients on therapies. According to clinicaltrial.gov, as of April 2020, there were more than 2,850 trials and around 900,000 patients enrolled at trial sites in regions that were in partial or complete lockdown due to COVID-19 restrictions. While the R&D labs are currently operating at below 50% of the normal capacity across the globe. Many research centers have decided to freeze new trials and have stopped inpatient studies. Different pharmaceutical companies have also decided to delay the start of new clinical trials, suspended enrollment in some trials, and have postponed the initiation of new sites in the case of trials continuing enrollment.

Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market Segmentation:

The global Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market report is segmented into Drug Type, Dosage Form, Indication, and Distribution Channel

Based on Drug Type, the market is segmented into Branded and Generic. Out of which, generic  segment is expected to dominate the Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market during the forecast period and this is attributed due to high demand of Oseltamivir Phosphate, for the treatment of  seasonal influenza.

Based on Dosage Form, the market is segmented into Capsules and Suspension. Out of which, capsules segment is expected to dominate the market over the forecast period and this is attributed due to preference of capsules for the treatment of influenza. Moreover, oral suspension is preferred only when the patients are unable to swallow capsules.

Based on Indication, the Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market is segmented into Influenza A, Influenza B, and Swine Flu (H1N1 Influenza A). Influenza A segment is expected to dominate the market over the forecast period and this is attributed to the higher prevalence rate of Influenza A over other types of indications.

Based on Distribution Channel, the Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market is segmented into hospital pharmacies, retail pharmacies, and online pharmacies. Of which, hospital pharmacies segment is expected to dominate the market over the forecast period and this is attributed to the increase in number of hospital pharmacies.

Among all segmentation, drug type segment has highest potential due to high demand of Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) products. Therefore, most of the manufacturers such as NATCO Pharma Limited, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Amneal Pharmaceuticals LLC, Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limited, and others are manufacturing Tamiflu in generic form.

Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market Cross Sectional Analysis:

In distribution channel segment, hospital pharmacies held as a dominant segment in North America region due to the increasing number of hospital pharmacies. For instance, in January 2022, according to data provided by the National Association of Pharmacy Regulatory Authorities, there were 11,814 pharmacies in Canada till January 2022.

In dosage form segment, capsule sub-segment, is dominant in North America region due to increasing number of geriatric population. For instance, in February, 2018, Lupin Pharmaceuticals, a pharmaceutical company, launched a generic version of Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) capsules. Lupin Pharmaceuticals is the fifth company to receive U.S. Food and Drug Administration (U.S. FDA) approval for a Tamiflu generic version.

Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market: Key Developments

On December 7, 2022, Genentech, Inc., a U.S. Biotechnology Corporation, announced that Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) is available across the U.S. for the distributors to ship the drugs across the U.S. pharmacies. This will increase the customer base for the drug, and this is expected to increase the growth of the market over the forecast period

In December 2021, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, a pharmaceutical company, set up a new manufacturing facility in Andhra Pradesh, India. This is expected to increase in the production of generic drugs, including drugs for the treatment of influenza, which will drive the growth of the market, over the forecast period

In July 2020, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., a pharmaceutical company, who entered in the Japanese market, by entering into joint venture with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, a pharmaceutical company, announced plans for new strategy for its local commercial operations, the new strategy will focus on marketing of generic drugs, in the Japanese market, including, generic version of oseltamivir phosphate tablets. This is expansion strategy is expected to drive the growth of the market over the forecast period.

Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market: Restraint

The side effects of Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate)

The major factors that can hamper growth of the global Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market over the forecast period include product recall, product side effects and others. For instance, in 2021, Lupin Pharmaceuticals Inc, a pharmaceutical company, recalled a single lot of oseltamivir phosphate for oral suspension. The recall was initiated after the U.S. FDA enforcement report, when impurity was detected in the oral suspension.

Global Tamiflu (Oseltamivir Phosphate) Market: Key Players

Major players operating in the global Tamiflu (oseltamivir phosphate) market include F.Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd., NATCO Pharma Limited, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., LUPIN Limited, Amneal Pharmaceuticals LLC, Zydus Cadila, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd., Alembic Pharmaceuticals Limited, Mylan N.V., and Hetero Group.