CARBON VERIFICATION MARKET ANALYSIS

The carbon verification market size is estimated to be valued at US$ 12.73 Bn in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 64.16 Bn by 2030, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% from 2023 to 2030. The growth of the carbon verification market is being driven by the increasing demand for carbon offsets, the growing importance of corporate social responsibility (CSR), and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Rising awareness of climate change and the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are driving the growth of the carbon verification market. Governments and businesses are increasingly adopting carbon offset programs to reduce their carbon footprint. Carbon verification is a critical component of carbon offset programs, as it ensures that the emissions reductions claimed by organizations are accurate and verifiable

Carbon Verification Market Regional Insights

• North America: North America, particularly the U.S., has been an active market for carbon verification services. The region has witnessed significant interest in carbon reduction and sustainability initiatives from both public and private sectors. The implementation of carbon pricing mechanisms and the presence of well-established verification standards have contributed to the growth of the carbon verification market, this region holds a substantial percentage of the market share, accounting for approximately 35%.
• Europe: Europe has been a leader in the carbon market and has established a robust regulatory framework, including the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). The region has witnessed a strong demand for carbon verification services, driven by mandatory emission reduction targets, regulatory compliance, and the voluntary market. Several countries in Europe have implemented their own verification schemes, creating opportunities for service providers and Europe holds around 25% of the market share.
• Asia Pacific: The Asia Pacific region is experiencing significant growth in the carbon verification market. Countries like China, Japan, South Korea, and Australia have implemented or are exploring carbon pricing mechanisms, which drive the need for accurate verification of emissions. There is increasing interest from businesses and investors in sustainability practices, thus leading to greater demand for carbon verification services and Asia Pacific accounts for approximately 20% of the market share

Figure 1. Carbon Verification Market Share (%), By Region, 2023

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Analyst Viewpoint:

The carbon verification market is expected to grow rapidly over the next decade driven by the stringent regulatory policies around the world to mitigate climate change and reduce carbon emissions. The European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is one of the largest carbon markets which are a key growth driver for the carbon verification services in the region. However, the lack of universally accepted standards and methodologies for carbon accounting and verification is a challenge for the market.

North America is also emerging as a major market for carbon verification supported by initiatives like California Cap-and-Trade Program. Growth opportunities exist in developing voluntary carbon market initiatives in countries and sectors not covered under compliance schemes. Meanwhile, carbon offset programs in developing nation present potential for market expansion in the next five years.

The market is expected to consolidate further as large environmental consultancies look to provide end-to-end carbon management services including inventory development, offset project validation, and verification. Demand for specialized verification services from sectors like oil and gas, electricity, and transportation will increase due to new reporting guidelines. However, the market remains fragmented with the presence of small regional players.

Carbon Verification Market Drivers:

• Climate change mitigation: The urgent need to address climate change and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions is a significant driver for the carbon verification market. Governments, organizations, and individuals are increasingly committed to reducing their carbon footprint and achieving emission reduction targets. Carbon verification ensures the credibility and accuracy of emission reductions or removals, providing confidence in the effectiveness of climate change mitigation efforts. For instance, in March 2023, Verra, a leading carbon credit certification organization, launched a new standard for carbon removal projects. The new standard, called Verra's Carbon Removal Standard, is designed to ensure that carbon removal projects are high-quality and meet rigorous environmental and social safeguards.
• Regulatory compliance: Many jurisdictions have implemented regulations and policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions. Compliance with these regulations often requires organizations to accurately measure and report their emissions. Carbon verification services help ensure compliance with these regulations by independently verifying and validating emissions data, methodologies, and reduction projects.
• Voluntary carbon market: The voluntary carbon market allows organizations and individuals to voluntarily offset their emissions by purchasing carbon credits from projects that reduce or remove greenhouse gases. Verification plays a crucial role in ensuring the integrity and transparency of these carbon offset projects. Buyers of carbon credits often require verification to ensure that the claimed emission reductions are genuine and meet recognized standards.
• Market access and trading: Access to carbon markets, such as emissions trading schemes and offset markets, often requires verification of emission reductions or removals. Verification provides assurance to market participants that the carbon credits traded represent genuine and verified emissions reductions, thus enhancing market integrity and facilitating efficient trading.

Carbon Verification Market Opportunities:

• Increasing demand for verification services: As more organizations and governments commit to carbon reduction goals, there is a growing demand for reliable and independent verification services. This presents an opportunity for companies specializing in carbon verification to offer their expertise and services to help organizations accurately measure, report, and verify their emissions.
• Market expansion in emerging regions: While developed regions like North America and Europe have been at the forefront of carbon verification, emerging regions, such as Asia Pacific, Latin America, and Africa, are starting to focus on carbon reduction efforts. These regions offer significant growth potential for carbon verification service providers as countries implement carbon pricing mechanisms, regulatory frameworks, and sustainability initiatives.
• Standard development and accreditation: The development and adoption of internationally recognized carbon verification standards and accreditation frameworks provide opportunities for service providers to establish themselves as trusted verifiers. By aligning with recognized standards, verification companies can gain credibility and attract clients by seeking independent and reputable verification services.
• Green finance and investment: Growing focus on sustainable finance and responsible investment creates opportunities for verification service providers. Financial institutions and investors require assurance on the environmental impact and carbon footprint of their investment portfolios. Verification services can help provide the necessary data and verification to assess the environmental risks and opportunities associated with investments. For instance, in May 2023, the Climate Bonds Initiative, a non-profit organization that promotes the use of green bonds to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation, launched a new certification program for carbon removal projects. The new certification program, called Climate Bonds Initiative Carbon Removal Certification, is designed to help investors identify high-quality carbon removal projects.

Carbon Verification Market Trends:

• Increasing emphasis on science-based targets: Many organizations are setting science-based targets (SBTs) to align their carbon reduction goals with the latest climate science. SBTs require rigorous measurement, reporting, and verification of emissions. As a result, there is a growing demand for carbon verification services to ensure the accuracy and credibility of SBTs.
• Integration of technology: The carbon verification market is leveraging technological advancements to improve data collection, analysis, and verification processes. Remote sensing, satellite imaging, internet of things (IoT), and blockchain are being used to enhance the accuracy, efficiency, and transparency of carbon verification. These technologies enable real-time monitoring, automated data collection, and secure data management. For instance, in April 2023, South Pole, another leading carbon credit certification organization, launched a new product called South Pole Carbon Intelligence. South Pole Carbon Intelligence is a software platform that helps companies track their carbon emissions and offset their emissions with high-quality carbon credits.
• Growing importance of scope 3 emissions: Scope 3 emissions refer to indirect emissions that occur in the value chain of an organization. There is increasing recognition of the significance of Scope 3 emissions in achieving comprehensive carbon reduction goals. Carbon verification is becoming essential to accurately measure and verifies Scope 3 emissions, thus enabling organizations to address their entire carbon footprint.
• Quality assurance and accreditation: With the growing demand for carbon verification services, there is a focus on quality assurance and accreditation to ensure the credibility and reliability of verification processes. Accreditation bodies are establishing criteria and standards for verification bodies to ensure consistent and accurate verification outcomes. This trend enhances the trust and confidence in the carbon verification market.

Carbon Verification Market Restraints:

• Lack of standardization: The absence of consistent and universally accepted verification standards poses a challenge for the carbon verification market. Different regions, industries, and organizations may have their own verification requirements and methodologies, thus leading to fragmentation and potential discrepancies in verification outcomes. Lack of standardization can create confusion, hinder comparability, and undermine the credibility of carbon verification efforts. The way to address this issue is to establish a global standard for carbon verification. This standard should be based on a set of clear and transparent rules that are agreed upon by all stakeholders in the carbon market.
• Complexity and cost: Carbon verification can be a complex and resource-intensive process, requiring expertise, data collection, analysis, and verification activities. The complexity and associated costs can be a barrier, particularly for smaller organizations or companies in developing regions with limited resources. The need for specialized knowledge and access to advanced technologies can further increase the costs of verification. The problem can be solved by using above ways Digital MRV, Tightening caps and Competitive carbon market mechanism.
• Market volatility and price fluctuations: The carbon market can be subject to volatility and price fluctuations, which can impact the demand and financial viability of carbon verification services. Uncertainties in carbon credit prices, market mechanisms, and investment trends can create challenges for verification companies in terms of predicting market demand and pricing their services competitively. The best way to address this issue is to study the features of carbon allowance price volatility for the stable development of the carbon market.

Recent Developments

New product launches

• In March 2023, Verra, a leading carbon credit certification organization, launched a new standard for carbon removal projects. The new standard, called Verra's Carbon Removal Standard, is designed to ensure that carbon removal projects are high-quality and meet rigorous environmental and social safeguards.
• In April 2023, South Pole, another leading carbon credit certification organization, launched a new product called South Pole Carbon Intelligence. South Pole Carbon Intelligence is a software platform that helps companies track their carbon emissions and offset their emissions with high-quality carbon credits.
• In May 2023, the Climate Bonds Initiative, a non-profit organization that promotes the use of green bonds to finance climate change mitigation and adaptation, launched a new certification program for carbon removal projects. The new certification program, called Climate Bonds Initiative Carbon Removal Certification, is designed to help investors identify high-quality carbon removal projects.

Key Strategic Initiatives

Acquisition and partnerships

• In December 2023, The SDG Group has officially unveiled its Carbon Footprint Platform, partnering with collaborators to advance the collective goal of achieving carbon neutrality.
• In February 2021, ClimatePartner and Horizon Ltd. have established a strategic alliance in Turkey, leveraging Horizon's robust customer engagement with ClimatePartner’s 15-year expertise in carbon strategy and achieving climate neutrality.

Figure 2. Carbon Verification Market Share (%), By Sector, 2022

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Top Companies in Carbon Verification Market

• DNV GL
• SGS SA
• Bureau Veritas
• TÜV NORD GROUP
• Intertek Group plc.
• Carbon Trust
• First Environment, Inc.
• ERM Certification and Verification Services
• NSF International
• UL LLC
• COTECNA
• SCS Global Services
• KPMG International Cooperative
• Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited
• PwC

Definition: Carbon verification is the process of independently assessing and confirming the accuracy, integrity, and compliance of greenhouse gas emissions data, carbon offset projects, or other carbon-related activities to ensure they meet specific standards, guidelines, or regulatory requirements.