ZERO EMISSION AIRCRAFT MARKET SIZE AND SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS AND FORECASTS (2024 - 2031)

Zero Emission Aircraft Market Size and Trends

The zero emission aircraft market is estimated to be valued at USD 7.68 billion in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 22.1 billion by 2031, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16.3% from 2024 to 2031.

The zero emission aircraft market is expected to witness significant growth over the forecast period. The increasing concerns regarding carbon emissions from air travel along with stringent environmental regulations are expected to drive the demand for zero emission aircraft.

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Major aircraft manufacturers like Airbus and Boeing are investing heavily in the development of electric and hydrogen-powered aircraft. The development of advanced battery technologies suitable for aviation and increasing range of electric aircraft are further expected to promote adoption of zero emission aircraft. Rising fossil fuel costs and need to reduce dependency are also favoring the market growth. However, factors such as lack of required infrastructure and high development costs of these aircraft, may hinder the market growth in the coming years.

Environmental Concerns

There is growing concern among governments and the public about the environmental impact of aircraft emissions. The aviation industry is under increasing pressure to reduce its carbon footprint and find ways to cut emissions that contribute to global warming. Commercial aviation accounts for roughly 2-3% of total carbon emissions globally. With air travel continuing to grow in the coming years due to rising incomes and globalization, aviation emissions are expected to increase substantially if no action is taken. Zero emission aircraft have the potential to address this issue by eliminating local air pollutants and CO2 emissions completely. This would help the aviation industry transition to more sustainable operations and comply with tightening environmental regulations. More countries and municipalities are expected to introduce legislation that incentivizes the deployment of zero emission aircraft, especially for short-haul flights. This is likely to become a major driver of demand over the long run as consumers and corporations become increasingly environmentally conscious.

As the second-largest carbon dioxide emitter globally, after China, the United States faces significant air pollution challenges. In 2021, the country emitted approximately 67 million tons of pollutants, primarily from transportation and electric power sectors. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), emissions from coal in the power sector increased for the first time since 2014. A recent study by the American Lung Association revealed that 4 out of 10 people, roughly 135 million individuals, live in areas with unhealthy air quality. Fossil fuel combustion is the primary cause, while climate change-induced events like wildfires and longer pollen seasons worsen air quality.

The aviation industry is heavily dependent on jet fuel to power aircraft and this accounts for a significant portion of operating costs for airlines. Over the past decade, fuel prices have witnessed high volatility driven by geopolitical uncertainty in West Asia and other factors influencing global crude oil markets. In some years, fuel costs alone have wiped out airline profits. The unpredictability of fuel prices poses major challenges for business planning and price competitiveness. Zero emission aircraft powered by hydrogen fuel cells or electric batteries promise to insulate the industry from these fuel market fluctuations. While hydrogen and electricity will have their own production and distribution costs, they are likely to be more stable over time in comparison to jet fuel whose prices are tied directly to global crude oil markets. By diversifying their energy sources, airlines can achieve greater budgeting certainty and better manage operating risks. This is attractive from a financial standpoint and could influence investment decisions on new aircraft fleets. As fuel economies continue to improve, total cost of ownership might favor hydrogen and electric options over conventional fueled aircraft.

Higher international refined fuel prices, driven by OPEC cuts and global demand, coupled with a weaker Australian dollar, raised petrol prices in Australia's major cities to 195.6 cpl in the September quarter, up by 12.7 cpl from the previous quarter. ACCC's report highlights the impact of these factors on prices. The increase was primarily due to higher international petrol prices and currency exchange rates. While prices reached record nominal levels, they were lower in real terms compared to previous years. Smaller capital cities saw relatively smaller price hikes, with Hobart at 198.5 cpl, Canberra at 197.4 cpl, and Darwin at 192.6 cpl.