SINGLE SHAFT TURBINE MARKET SIZE AND SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS AND FORECASTS (2023 - 2030)

The single shaft turbine Market size is valued at US$ 2.63 billion in 2023 and is expected to reach US$ 3.78 billion by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.3% from 2023 to 2030.

Single shaft turbines are turbines that utilize a single shaft for energy transfer. The turbine rotor is coupled directly to the load, eliminating the need for a gearbox. This makes the system more efficient by minimizing energy losses. Single shaft turbines are commonly used in steam turbines, gas turbines, wind turbines, and hydropower generation. The advantages of single shaft turbines include their simple and compact design, high reliability, low maintenance requirements, and ability to operate at high speeds.

Single Shaft Turbine Market Regional Insights

• Asia Pacific is expected to be the largest market for single shaft turbines during the forecast period, accounting for over 34% of the market share in 2023. The growth of the market in Asia Pacific is attributed to rapid industrialization, increasing energy demand, and investments in the power sector in countries like China and India.
• North America is expected to be the second-largest market for single shaft turbines, accounting for over 26% of the market share in 2023. The growth of the market in North America is attributed to increasing emphasis on renewable energy sources and shale gas-based power generation.
• Europe is expected to be the fastest-growing market for single shaft turbines, growing at CAGR of over 21% during the forecast period. The growth of the market in Europe is attributed to the refurbishment of existing plants and investments in hybrid power generation technology.

Figure 1. Global Single Shaft Turbine Market Share (%), by Region, 2023

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Single Shaft Turbine Market Drivers

• Increasing electricity demand: The global electricity demand has been increasing steadily over the past few decades, driven by population growth, rapid urbanization, industrialization, and economic development. This rising electricity demand is a major driver for the single shaft turbine market, as turbines are essential components in power generation. For instance, the global electricity demand grew by over 25% in the last decade reaching over 23,000 TWh in 2020. Countries like China and India are witnessing massive growth in electricity consumption. To meet the rising power demand, governments are focused on increasing power generation capacities, which is subsequently driving the adoption of turbines including single shaft variants. In October 2022, SKF is a well-known global supplier of bearings, seals, lubrication systems, and other engineering solutions and Chinese wind turbine manufacturer, Goldwind have teamed up to construct SKF's initial smart energy and carbon management system in its Dalian factory, China.
• Technological advancements: Recent technological advancements are driving the adoption of advanced and efficient single shaft turbine designs. OEMs are developing innovative turbine models with improved materials, aerodynamic profiles, digital capabilities, and automation to enhance efficiency, output, and reliability. For example, advanced blade coatings, directional solidification of blades, and integrally-bladed rotors are some innovations that have improved turbine performance. Advanced monitoring, diagnostics and control systems have also enabled predictive maintenance, reduced downtime, and enhanced the turbine lifespan. Such technology enhancements have made single shaft turbines more viable and accelerated their deployment.
• Supportive government policies: Favorable government policies and initiatives for clean energy adoption, upgrading of aging power infrastructure and investments in the energy sector are facilitating single shaft turbine installations globally. Policies like renewable purchase obligations, tax incentives, preferential tariffs and auctions are promoting renewable energy capacity additions. This is driving wind turbine deployment. Also, initiatives around modernizing power generation assets and expansion of electricity access are aiding single shaft turbine uptake. For instance, India aims to achieve 175 GW renewable energy capacity by 2022. Such ambitious plans are catalyzing the turbine demand.
• Rapid industrialization: Rapid industrial development and economic growth across developing economies is fueling electricity consumption in the industrial sector. Industries account for over 40% of the global electricity consumption. Expanding manufacturing activities, rising industrial investments and increasing mining, metal and cement production are escalating electricity usage in industries. This is creating substantial demand for power generation equipment like single shaft turbines. For example, industrial electricity demand in non-OECD Asia is projected to grow at over 5% annually through 2040. This will drive significant turbine adoption.

Single Shaft Turbine Market Opportunities

• Hybrid power generation: The adoption of hybrid power systems integrating conventional and renewable energy offers significant growth opportunities for single shaft turbines. Hybrid power plants that leverage natural gas and steam turbines along with renewable sources like solar, wind and energy storage provide clean, reliable and affordable power. Single shaft turbines are well suited for such hybrid systems owing to modularity, flexibility and efficiency. With many countries aiming to balance renewable energy growth with grid stability, hybrid generation is gaining prominence. For instance, GE's hybrid power projects in Turkey combine gas turbines, steam turbines, and batteries.
• Distributed power generation: The rising trend of distributed power generation via rooftop solar, small gas turbines and microgrids provides opportunities for compact single shaft turbine adoption. Distributed systems require modular turbines that can efficiently generate power in small capacities. Single shaft turbines can fulfill such needs owing to customizable configurations, limited footprint and rapid installation. This allows using them in small-scale projects. For example, microturbines with single shaft designs are gaining traction for onsite distributed generation. Global distributed capacity is expected to grow from 394 GW in 2020 to 1,852 GW by 2030. For instance, in February 2021, GE has declared the inaugural commercial use of GE’s 9HA.02 Technology worldwide at Southern Power Generation’s Track 4A Power Plant in Malaysia.
• Repowering of aging plants: The repowering and upgrading of aging fossil fuel plants by replacing old equipment with modern, high-efficiency turbines will spur the single shaft turbine demand. Old power plants are opting for repowering to extend operational life and improve efficiency. This involves turbine fleet modernization. Single shaft turbines offer compact designs and flexibility that make them suitable for repowering projects compared to traditional multi-shaft variants. Regional policies facilitating repowering of aging plants provide incentives for new turbine installations such as single shaft models.
• Offshore wind expansion: The offshore wind power sector offers substantial opportunities for single shaft turbine adoption owing to large-scale project capacities and turbine size requirements. Offshore environments demand turbines with compact and lightweight nacelle designs not requiring gearboxes. This makes single shaft turbines apt for such applications. Offshore wind installed capacity is projected to grow from 34 GW in 2019 to 234 GW by 2030. Key regions driving this growth include Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America Major turbine OEMs are introducing large single shaft offshore turbine models to tap this segment.

Single Shaft Turbine Market Trends

• Digitalization: The integration of digital technologies like IoT, analytics, AI, and Blockchain in single shaft turbines is a major market trend. Digital capabilities enable advanced monitoring, predictive maintenance, remote operability, and asset optimization in turbines. For instance, Siemens' MindSphere turbine control system provides plant-wide asset visibility. Digital twin technology helps simulate turbine operations. Blockchain applications allow transparent turbine performance monitoring. Such digitalization enhancements are contributing to wider single shaft turbine adoption.
• Declining levelized cost: The levelized cost of electricity production of single shaft turbines, especially wind models, has declined substantially over the last decade owing to technology advancements. This cost reduction is a key trend making single shaft turbines more cost-competitive. Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for onshore wind power fell by around 70% over the last decade. Technology improvements that have lowered costs include increased turbine sizes, hub heights, rotor diameters and improved materials. Auctions and large-scale production have also reduced wind turbine LCOE. Such cost declines reinforce the trend towards single shaft variants.
• Hydrogen utilization: The ability to leverage green hydrogen for power generation and integrate hydrogen-ready components is an emerging trend in the single shaft turbine market. OEMs are developing turbine models capable of utilizing hydrogen fuel to enable clean power production. Hydrogen can serve as a storage medium for intermittent renewable energy. For instance, Mitsubishi Power has introduced gas turbines that can co-fire ammonia along with natural gas to provide carbon-free power. Advancing hydrogen economy and declining electrolyzer costs will favor this trend. For Instance, IN October 2022, Mitsubishi Power, a division specializing in power solutions under Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), is merging hydrogen demonstration infrastructure with the current T-Point 2 single-shaft combined cycle validation facility located in Takasago. This combined entity, named "Hydrogen Park," will encompass hydrogen production, storage, alongside the present large and small/medium gas turbine units.
• Emerging markets: The rising installation of single shaft turbines in developing regions including Asia Pacific, Africa, and Latin America reflect a geographical shift. Developing economies are expected to account for the majority of new turbine deployments owing to electricity demand growth and investments in the power sector. For example, non-OECD countries will account for over 90% of global energy demand growth until 2040. Government efforts to expand clean energy capacities and electrification rates also favor installations in emerging markets.

Single Shaft Turbine Market Restraints:

• High initial and maintenance costs: The high costs associated with single shaft turbine projects related to equipment, logistics, installation, and maintenance remains a key challenge. The raw material, manufacturing and transportation costs contribute to high capital costs, especially for large utility-scale turbines. Maintenance costs are also substantial owing to precision equipment needs, frequent inspections, and occasional major overhauls. For smaller consumers, these high costs can prohibit adoption. However, costs are gradually declining with technology maturation, localization, and scale advantages. Efforts toward technology maturation, economies of scale, and localized production contribute to gradually alleviating the burden of high initial and maintenance costs. These trends are making single shaft turbine projects more financially viable, potentially improving their accessibility to a wider range of consumers or industries interested in adopting cleaner energy solutions. As such, while cost remains a notable challenge, ongoing advancements and market developments are gradually addressing and mitigating this restraint, making the technology more competitive and accessible.
• Grid integration challenges: Integrating large-scale single shaft turbine capacities poses grid stability and management challenges, restraining uptake. The intermittent and variable nature of renewable energy from wind and solar plants powered by single shaft turbines makes grid integration complex when capacity additions are significant. It requires major transmission system investments and grid modernization. Weak grid infrastructure in emerging economies further amplifies integration issues. Although solutions like battery storage are easing integration, challenges persist. Counterbalancing these challenges, ongoing advancements in grid technology are progressively addressing integration issues. Grid modernization efforts, including the adoption of smart grid solutions, enable better management and balancing of renewable energy inputs. Advanced grid control systems and predictive analytics help anticipate and manage fluctuations, enhancing grid stability.
• Lengthy approval cycles: Long permitting, planning and approval procedures due to extensive environmental impact assessments and grid integration studies delay single shaft turbine projects. Onshore and offshore wind farms often face long development timeframes to get permits and approvals before construction can begin. Local community concerns regarding noise and visual impacts also contribute to lengthy approval cycles in some regions that act as headwinds for project execution and turbine demand. However, favorable policies are improving approval timelines.

Recent Developments

New product launches

• In May 2020, Siemens is a multinational conglomerate renowned for its diverse portfolio of products and services in electrification, automation, and digitalization loaded its largest, most powerful, and efficient heavy-duty gas turbine onto an inland cargo ship today in Berlin, Germany. The turbine is en route to Keadby, Lincolnshire, in the U.K., where it will undergo testing at a power plant operated by SSE Thermal, a U.K.-based energy generator.
• In July 2023, General Electric is a multinational conglomerate known for its wide array of products and services spanning various sectors Marine entered into a contract with TAIS OG-STM İş Ortaklığı is a partnership entity based in Istanbul, Turkey. This joint venture involves collaboration between various companies or stakeholders under a unified structure, aiming to pursue specific projects or ventures to supply the LM2500 marine gas turbine engine. This will be housed in a novel lightweight composite enclosure for the Turkish MILGEM Project's İstif-Class frigates 6, 7, and 8.
• In May 2021, Voith Hydro is a renowned company specializing in hydropower technology and equipment unveiled the latest iteration of hydraulic turbine governors. Since the end of last year, the HyCon GoHybrid has been operational at the hydropower plant in Wiblingen, Germany, managed by SWU Energy GmbH (a subsidiary of Stadtwerke Ulm/Neu-Ulm GmbH). The plant operator is impressed by the swift and straightforward installation process and the governor's performance.

Acquisition and partnerships

• In March 2023, Vestas is a prominent global company known for its leadership in wind energy solutions. Specializing in the design, manufacturing, installation, and servicing of wind turbines, Vestas plays a key role in the renewable energy sector and KK Wind Solutions is a company specializing in providing innovative solutions for the wind energy sector enhanced their partnership through the transfer of the converters and controls for the wind industry
• In March 2022, Voith is a global technology company that operates across various industries, including energy, oil and gas, paper, raw materials, and transportation and automotive sectors successfully finalized the acquisition of all shares in Voith Hydro from its former joint venture partner, Siemens Energy is a leading global company specializing in energy technology and solutions
• In October 2021, Toshiba is a multinational conglomerate known for its diverse range of products and services across various industries, including electronics, infrastructure, energy, and social infrastructure finalized the acquisition of GP Strategies' EtaPRO Business

Figure 2. Global Single Shaft Turbine Market Share (%), by Application, 2023

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Top Companies in the Single Shaft Turbine Market

• Siemens
• General Electric
• Voith
• ANDRITZ
• Toshiba
• Harbin Electric
• BHEL
• Hitachi
• Kirloskar
• Ansaldo Energia
• Shanghai Electric
• Dongfang Electric
• IMPSA
• Zhefu
• Power Machines
• CME
• Doosan Skoda Power
• Hydroglobe
• Gilkes
• Tianfa

Definition: The single shaft turbine market covers the global market for various turbine types that operate on a single shaft design to convert kinetic energy into mechanical work. These turbines include steam, gas, hydraulic, wind, and other emerging turbines that utilize a single rotor shaft coupled directly to the load without any intermediate gear system. Single shaft turbines offer benefits like compact size, high reliability, and efficiency. They find applications in the power generation, oil & gas, industrial, aviation, and marine sectors. Both electrical generators and mechanical equipment can be driven by single shaft turbines. The single shaft turbine market is poised to grow steadily driven by the rising electricity demand, need for higher efficiency, and clean energy sources.