GLOBAL BIRD FLU MARKET SIZE AND SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS AND FORECASTS (2023 - 2030)

Global Bird Flu Market is estimated to be valued at US$ 1.43 Bn in 2023, and is expected to reach US$ 2.03 Bn by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.1% from 2023 to 2030.

Global Bird Flu Market- Regional Insights

• North America has established itself as the dominant region having a major share of 46.7% in the global bird flu market in 2023. The U.S. is home to several major players that manufacture vaccines and diagnostics for avian influenza. Major poultry markets in the U.S. and Canada have helped North America lead in terms of outbreak preparedness and prevention measures. Stringent food safety regulations require the widespread adoption of biosecurity systems across commercial poultry farms. Leading pharmaceutical companies in the U.S. have made major R&D investments towards developing universal avian flu vaccines. This allows North America to better tackle novel strains of avian influenza before these spread globally.
• Europe's bird flu market is expected to witness growth due to high immunization rates across the region. Several European nations have prioritized vaccine development and distribution over the past decade in response to periodic outbreaks. For example, according to the data published by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), in 2018, over 200 million doses of H5N1 vaccine were administered across Europe.
• Asia Pacific has emerged as the fastest growing regional market for bird flu prevention and control. Countries like China, India, and Vietnam have tremendous poultry production and consumption. This naturally elevates the risks of avian influenza outbreaks stemming from migratory wild birds. Several tropical countries in Southeast Asia also lie along major migratory flyways from Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where outbreaks frequently occur. While still developing, the biosafety practices are rapidly expanding across small farms and live bird markets. This can potentially limit future spread within these densely populated regions. The industry presence of global vaccine manufacturers has boosted vaccination adoption in many high risk Asian nations. These players are also actively engaged in monitoring and surveillance programs with governments and veterinary organizations.

Figure 1. Global Bird Flu Market Share (%), By Region, 2023

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Analyst View-

Global bird flu market is witnessing steady growth due to increasing outbreaks globally. Asia Pacific currently dominates the market, owing to growing poultry farming primarily in China and Southeast Asian countries. These nations account for over half of the world's poultry production. As the risk of transmission from birds to humans remains high in overcrowded farming conditions, countries in the region can boost surveillance and vaccination programs. This boosts demand for diagnostic tests, personal protective equipment, and vaccines in the near term. North America and Europe are also important markets driven by strong R&D focus on developing novel therapies and preventive solutions for high pathogenic strains. However, regulatory approvals for new products tend to be lengthy, thus, posing a moderate restraint. Lower prevalence compared to Asia moderately limits growth opportunities in developed nations.

Global Bird Flu Market- Drivers

• Rising Animal Population Susceptible to Bird Flu: With exponential growth in world population over the past few decades, demand for animal protein in the form of poultry, pork and other meats has also increased substantially across both developed and developing regions of the world. As a result, livestock and poultry farming has grown aggressively with many countries, ramping up production to cater to the strong demand for meat both locally as well as for export. Rising animal populations have made these animals, especially chicken and ducks, more susceptible and vulnerable to various viral infections and diseases. Bird flu virus, being a highly contagious disease among avian species, has found an expanded host in the hugely inflated animal populations worldwide. Additionally, many countries still follow unsanitary practices in their live animal markets which brings several bird species in close contact with each other as well as humans, thereby increasing the risk of bird flu virus transmission.
• Surveillance & Monitoring of Migratory Wild Birds: Not only domestic poultry, migratory wild birds like ducks, geese and shorebirds are also known to play a role in the natural ecology of avian influenza viruses. These act as the natural host and reservoir for these viruses, with no apparent illness. During seasonal migrations, wild birds can travel thousands of miles potentially spreading viruses over long distances. Proper surveillance and monitoring of migratory patterns and avian influenza infections in wild bird populations is essential for understanding the avian influenza's epidemiology and assessing the risk of transmission. Governments and international organizations have stepped up efforts to track the migrations routes of wild birds and monitor the prevalence of avian influenza in these species. It also aids in identifying sources of novel virus introductions and implementing timely control response. The information gained from wild bird surveillance assists in risk assessment and disease management strategies. It is anticipated that with growing emphasis on such monitoring activities globally, the demand for relevant diagnostic tests, sampling kits and data management solutions in the bird flu market will continue to sustain.
• Research funding for treatment of bird flu: Research funding for the treatment of avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, has significantly contributed to the growth of the bird flu market in recent years. Several government and international health organizations have increased research grants and funding to develop effective vaccines and antiviral drugs against the different strains of the H5N1 and H7N9 viruses. For instance, on December 12, 2023, The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) collaborated with Chungbuk National University (CBNU) in South Korea to further accelerate the development of CBNU's self-amplifying mRNA vaccine technology. CBNU will first test the platform against the avian influenza H5N1 virus with the help of CEPI. The findings will serve as a model for evaluating this new technology and investigating how it may be used to respond to a future Disease X in as little as 100 days. Hence, the increased research support is expected to accelerate the product development pipeline in the coming years. As effective prevention and treatment options become available, it is likely to boost demand for relevant products.

Global Bird Flu Market- Opportunities

• Development of low cost vaccines: The development of low-cost vaccines could unlock tremendous potential in the bird flu market. As outbreaks of avian influenza continue to threaten poultry farms and public health across the globe, affordable and accessible vaccination programs are critical to mitigate risks. Currently, vaccination is not widely utilized as a control method due to the high costs associated with developing and administering traditional flu shots. However, recent scientific advances have shown promise for more affordable alternatives. Researchers are working on new delivery methods such as nasal sprays or food additives that could be mass-produced and distributed more efficiently. Cheap and easy-to-administer vaccines would make it financially viable for commercial farms and backyard flocks in developing nations to implement vaccination protocols as part of their routine healthcare activities. This could significantly curtail outbreaks and save lives.
• Genetic Engineering Research For Resistant Breeds: Genetic engineering research for developing bird flu resistant poultry breeds presents a great opportunity for the bird flu market to grow sustainably over the long term. Scientists have been conducting extensive research to genetically modify poultry breeds that are resistant to different strains of avian influenza. This research aims to reduce the susceptibility of commercial poultry like chickens and ducks to bird flu viruses. This would bring much needed stability to the poultry farming industry as well as security of supply to poultry consumers. Rather than reacting to outbreaks by destroying livestock, scientists are working to develop a long term solution through targeted genetic edits that allow birds to coexist safely with these viruses. Several research institutes and universities around the world are engaged in projects exploring new gene editing techniques like CRISPR to understand the genetic basis of bird flu susceptibility.
• Growth in consumption of poultry meat and eggs: The consumption of poultry meat and eggs is growing steadily around the world as a more affordable and nutritious protein sources. According to data from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization, in 2021, global consumption of meat proteins is projected to increase by 14% by 2030 as compared to the base period average of 2018-2020, driven largely by income and population growth. Protein availability from beef, pork, poultry, and sheep meat is projected to grow 5.9%, 13.1%, 17.8% and 15.7% respectively by 2030. This rise in demand is expected to continue due to population growth, increasing incomes in developing nations, and preferences among health-conscious consumers in developed markets. As poultry consumption grows, the need for effective prevention and control of bird flu outbreaks will become more pressing to safeguard food security and public health. Greater consumption means a larger supply is needed to meet demand, which increases risks if any outbreak occurs due to the concentration and movement of more birds.

Global Bird Flu Market- Trends

• Increasing popularity of backyard poultry: The rising popularity of backyard poultry keeping in residential areas across many countries has started influencing the bird flu market in notable ways. With more amateur chicken, duck, and other bird owners raising small flocks in and around cities, there is a greater risk of various avian influenza viruses spreading more easily between domestic and wild birds. Backyard flocks tend to be raised in smaller enclosures or free-range setups with less robust biosecurity practices as compared to commercial poultry farms. This makes it harder to isolate infected birds and prevent diseases from jumping between backyard and commercial operations or migratory wild birds. When H5N1 avian influenza, commonly known as bird flu, enters a backyard setup, the chances of it spreading to other backyard flocks or larger commercial facilities is higher due to the integration of smaller flocks in suburban landscapes.
• Advancement in vaccine technology: Advancement in vaccine technology is having a significant impact on the bird flu market. Scientists and researchers have been working tirelessly over the past few years to develop more effective vaccines against various bird flu strains such as H5N1 and H7N9. Several countries have reported breakthroughs in developing universal flu vaccines that offer cross-protection against multiple subtypes of influenza virus in poultry. For instance, in December 2022, Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers Welfare, India, developed an inactivated low pathogenic avian influenza (H9N2) vaccine for chickens by using new technology. The vaccine will contribute significantly to increase in income of poultry farmers by reducing the economic loss due to the disease. This universal vaccine provides broader and longer lasting immunity to birds as compared to traditional vaccines and requires fewer doses. Consequently, it is more cost effective for poultry farmers and governments to vaccinate large flocks.
• Increasing demand for rapid diagnostic tests: Increasing demand for rapid diagnostic tests is a key trend that is positively influencing the bird flu market. With the growing risk of bird flu outbreaks across various geographies, there is heightened awareness among various stakeholders such as governments, farmers, veterinarians, and others about the need for swift diagnosis and containment. Rapid diagnostic tests play a crucial role in this regard by enabling early detection of the avian influenza virus. This helps to stop the spread before it can develop into a large outbreak. Various countries and international organizations are now focusing on building local surveillance and rapid response capabilities to deal with any emergencies. In addition, growing private sector interest is also supplementing demand. Commercial poultry farms and egg producers are incorporating point-of-care testing as part of biosecurity protocols to minimize business disruptions from outbreaks. Some state governments in the U.S. have made it mandatory for commercial holdings to screen birds regularly using rapid tests.

Global Bird Flu Market- Restraints

• Resistance to Vaccines Can Limit Their Effectiveness: While vaccines play a critical role in preventing bird flu outbreaks, the growing problem of antigenic drift in the virus poses a challenge. Over time, viral strains tend to mutate and develop resistance/reduced sensitivity to existing vaccines. This antigenic shift necessitates regular vaccine revamping and development of new generation formulations. However, the resource and time intensive vaccine research, testing and approval process can potentially delay availability of updated vaccines against emerging viral variants. The risk of vaccines losing effectiveness against circulating viral strains in the interim raises concerns among farmers and regulators alike regarding continued protection of flocks. Reliance on reactive rather than proactive vaccination approaches may no longer suffice as virus evolution accelerates. Dwindling vaccine effectiveness will curb their usage and dampen related market growth if alternatives are not explored concurrently to stay ahead of antigenic drift.
• Societal Resistance Hampers Control Measures: Culling of large numbers of birds during outbreaks causes significant economic losses for farmers. However, it remains a necessary step to arrest further disease spread as per international health standards.  Some communities resist mass depopulation seeing it as harmful to livelihoods. They may also view vaccination and other control measures with skepticism. Misinformation at times fuels negative perceptions. Diffuse and illegal movement of live poultry including at wet markets also challenges traceability of outbreak sources, which societal non-cooperation can exacerbate. Resistance to control policies among some groups jeopardizes coordinated outbreak response and long term prevention plans. It risks perpetuating virus circulation in settings with poor biosecurity and surveillance. Overcoming public apprehensions through engagement and education will be needed alongside policy efforts to help manage bird flu risks more effectively. Overall challenges posed by virus evolution and sections resisting control require innovative solutions to sustain market opportunities.
• High costs associated with vaccine development: High costs associated with vaccine development is one of the major factors restraining the growth of the bird flu market. Developing a new vaccine is an expensive process that involves extensive research, testing, clinical trials and regulatory clearances. On average, it takes between 10 to 15 years for a new vaccine to be approved and introduced in the market. The entire process from research to market approval costs anywhere between US$ 500 million to US$ 2 billion for a new vaccine. A large portion of these costs are spent in conducting clinical trials to test the vaccine's safety and efficacy on humans. Bird flu viruses are continually mutating which means vaccines need to be updated regularly to protect against new strains. This requires further research and clinical trials each time, raising costs substantially. Bird flu outbreaks are sporadic and regional in nature making it difficult to quickly recover investments in vaccine development through sales. The limited and uncertain market and profits deters many big pharmaceutical companies from aggressively investing in this space.

Global Bird Flu Market- Recent Developments

Research and Development Activities

• In October 2023, FluMap consortium, headed by the world-leading research team at the Animal and Plant Health Agency in U.K., discovered that Northern Gannets and Shag are showing signs of developing immunity to avian influenza. The top scientific research consortium has secured US$ 3.8 million additional funding for further research into avian influenza transmission due to continued risk of spread of disease.
• In April 2023, The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) announced the testing of a handful of vaccinations against the current strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), in the hopes of halting the spread of the nation's greatest bird flu outbreak in history. According to a U.S. DA spokesman, researchers with the U.S. DA's Agricultural Research Service (ARS) began evaluating four vaccine candidates in April, beginning with single-dose studies. 
• In September 2022, Wageningen Bioveterinary Research (WBVR) started a trial with bird flu vaccination. In the trial, vaccines against the current H5 viruses are tested in laying hens. This first vaccine trial is performed in the animal facilities in the high containment unit of WBVR. The modern vaccines were developed by three different pharmaceutical companies; the tested vaccines are based on different technologies.

Business Development Activities by Market Players

• In August 2023, CSL Seqirus, a business of CSL, was selected by the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response (ASPR) within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), to deliver one bulk lot of H5N8 A/Astrakhan antigen to the U.S. government. This gain of a bulk lot will increase BARDA's stockpile of vaccine to support rapid response in an associated avian influenza pandemic.
• In April 2023, The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) continues efforts on many fronts to mitigate the latest outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in the U.S. This pervasive virus is carried in wild, migratory birds and typically peaks in the spring and summer months in the U.S. As part of U.S. DA’s commitment, on April 13, 2023, the department held a stakeholder roundtable with poultry industry leaders and state government officials to discuss the current and future HPAI strategy and opportunities for continued collaboration.
• In March 2023, Virax Biolabs Group Limited, an innovative diagnostics company that focuses on the prevention, detection, and diagnosis of viral diseases, announced that it had entered into an agreement for the distribution of an Avian Influenza A Virus real-time PCR test kit to markets accepting the CE mark, namely the European Union. The test kit is for the detection and differentiation of ribonucleic acid from AIV and the H5, H7 and H9 subtypes, including the H5N1 strain currently spreading in Europe.

Figure 2.  Global Bird Flu Market Share (%), By Treatment Type, 2023

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Top Companies in the Global Bird Flu Market

• Boehringer Ingelheim
• Ceva Santé Animale
• Zoetis
• Merck & Co.
• Ringpu Biology
• Yebio Bioengineering
• FATRO
• CAVAC
• ChengDu Tecbond
• QYH Biotech
• Elanco
• Phibro Animal Health
• Vetoquinol
• Hipra
• Venkys
• Anicon Labor GmbH
• Medion Farma Jaya
• Bioveta
• Lohmann Animal Health
• Biogenesis Bago

Definition: Bird flu, also known as avian influenza, is a type of influenza virus that primarily affects birds, but can infect various species of animals, including humans. This virus is similar to the human influenza viruses that can cause seasonal flu epidemics, but bird flu is often more virulent in birds. There are several different strains of avian influenza viruses, which are categorized as either low pathogenic (LPAI) or highly pathogenic (HPAI) based on the severity of the illness these cause in birds. The low-pathogenic strains typically cause mild symptoms and may go undetected, while the high-pathogenic strains can lead to severe disease and high mortality rates among bird populations. The most well-known strain of bird flu is the H5N1 subtype of the influenza A virus.