DUCTLESS MINI SPLITS MARKET SIZE AND SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS AND FORECASTS (2025 - 2032)

Ductless Mini Splits Market Size and Forecast – 2025 - 2032

The Global Ductless Mini Splits Market is estimated to be valued at USD 17.92 Bn in 2025 and is expected to reach USD 31.31 Bn by 2032, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.3% from 2025 to 2032.

Key Takeaways of the Global Ductless Mini Splits Market:

• The single-zone mini split segment is estimated to lead the market with a share of 58.7% in 2025.
• The wall-mounted mini split segment is projected to dominate, holding 57.3% of the market share in 2025.
• North America is expected to lead the market, holding a share of 34.4% in 2025. Asia Pacific is anticipated to be the fastest-growing region, with an estimated market share of 29.3% in 2025.

Market Overview:

The global ductless mini splits market is witnessing significant growth, driven by increasing demand for energy-efficient climate control solutions and rapid urbanization. The market benefits from rising awareness of Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) energy consumption and the push for eco-friendly alternatives. Additionally, stringent government policies and incentives promoting energy-efficient systems are accelerating the adoption of ductless mini splits. While North America dominates due to strong regulatory frameworks and high consumer adoption rates, Asia Pacific is emerging as the fastest-growing region, fueled by infrastructural development and climate-conscious initiatives.

Segmental Insights

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Type Insights – Single-Zone Mini Split Segment Leads Due to Superior Energy Efficiency

The single-zone mini split segment is expected to emerge as the dominant category in the global ductless mini splits market, holding a market share of approximately 58.7% in 2025. This segment's leadership is driven by its superior energy efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and targeted climate control capabilities. Single-zone mini splits are particularly favored for their ability to provide efficient heating and cooling for individual rooms or spaces, making them an ideal solution for residential applications, small offices, and specific commercial settings.

The strength of single-zone mini splits lies in their technological advancements and streamlined operation. These systems leverage inverter technology and smart climate control features, allowing for optimized energy consumption and enhanced comfort. By integrating with IoT-enabled home automation systems, they provide users with seamless remote control and real-time monitoring capabilities, further enhancing their appeal in modern households and workplaces.

Another key factor driving the dominance of this segment is its ease of installation and maintenance. Unlike multi-zone systems, single-zone mini splits require fewer components and less complex installation, resulting in reduced upfront costs and quicker deployment. As global energy efficiency regulations become more stringent, the demand for single-zone mini splits is expected to remain strong, particularly in regions experiencing rising urbanization and climate variability.

Mounting Options Insights – Wall-mounted Mini Splits Lead Due to Space-saving Design

The wall-mounted mini split segment is expected to be the leading mounting options in the global ductless mini splits market, commanding a market share of 57.3% in 2025. Its dominance is primarily attributed to its versatility, space-saving design, and superior energy efficiency. These systems are widely used in residential and commercial applications due to their ability to deliver targeted heating and cooling without the need for extensive ductwork or major renovations.

Wall-mounted mini splits are particularly valued for their high energy efficiency ratings, as they come equipped with advanced inverter compressors that optimize power consumption based on real-time room conditions. Additionally, their user-friendly installation and maintenance make them a preferred choice for homeowners and businesses alike.

Another factor driving this segment's leadership is technological integration. Many wall-mounted mini splits now feature smart controls, AI-driven temperature adjustments, and compatibility with mobile apps and voice assistants, enhancing user convenience and operational efficiency. Their sleek, modern designs further contribute to their popularity, allowing seamless integration into contemporary interior spaces.

Regional Insights

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North America Ductless Mini Splits Market Trends

North America is expected to dominate the global ductless mini splits market, holding a market share of approximately 34.4% in 2025. The region’s leadership is driven by stringent energy efficiency regulations, high consumer demand for eco-friendly HVAC solutions, and strong adoption in both residential and commercial sectors. Government incentives promoting energy-efficient heating and cooling solutions, coupled with rising electricity costs, have accelerated the demand for ductless mini splits.

The presence of major players, such as Carrier Global Corporation, Mitsubishi Electric, and Daikin Industries, has further strengthened North America's market position. These companies have continuously invested in technological advancements, smart climate control features, and inverter-based energy-efficient systems, catering to the region's growing demand for sustainable HVAC solutions.

Asia Pacific Ductless Mini Splits Market Trends

The Asia Pacific region, accounting for approximately 29.3% of the market in 2025, is projected to be the fastest-growing market for ductless mini splits. This rapid growth is driven by urbanization, rising disposable incomes, and increasing demand for energy-efficient cooling solutions in countries such as China, Japan, India, and South Korea. The region’s extreme climate conditions and growing adoption of smart home technologies have also fueled market expansion.

Asia Pacific is home to some of the world’s leading HVAC manufacturers, including Daikin, Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, and Panasonic, which have aggressively expanded their product portfolios to cater to the diverse needs of consumers in this region. Local players are also instrumental in driving market growth by offering cost-effective solutions, expanding manufacturing capabilities, and leveraging government initiatives promoting energy-efficient appliances.

Ductless Mini Splits Market Outlook for Key Countries

U.S. Ductless Mini Splits Market Trends

The U.S. remains the largest market for ductless mini splits in North America, driven by rising energy efficiency regulations, increasing consumer demand for cost-effective climate control, and advancements in smart HVAC technology. The U.S. ductless mini splits market is witnessing strong adoption in residential and light commercial sectors, as homeowners and businesses seek energy-saving alternatives to traditional central HVAC systems.

Major players like Carrier Global Corporation, Trane Technologies, and Lennox International dominate the market, leveraging their established distribution networks, technological innovations, and strong brand reputation. Additionally, local HVAC service providers and retailers play a crucial role in promoting mini split installations and offering maintenance services, further driving adoption.

Canada Ductless Mini Splits Market Trends

Canada is witnessing strong growth in ductless mini splits adoption, particularly in provinces with extreme seasonal temperatures such as Ontario, Quebec, and British Columbia. The demand is being fueled by rising electricity costs, increasing focus on energy-efficient buildings, and government policies promoting sustainable heating and cooling solutions.

Major international brands like Mitsubishi Electric, Daikin, and Fujitsu General dominate the market, while local HVAC companies and distributors help expand accessibility through customized solutions and after-sales services. Canadian consumers are increasingly favoring cold-climate heat pump mini splits, which offer efficient heating even in subzero temperatures.

China Ductless Mini Splits Market Trends

China, the largest manufacturer and consumer of ductless mini splits, holds a dominant position in the Asia Pacific region, driven by rapid urbanization, rising middle-class income, and government initiatives promoting energy-efficient appliances. The increasing demand for air conditioning solutions in both residential and commercial sectors has fueled massive growth in the country’s ductless mini splits market.

Leading domestic brands, such as Gree Electric Appliances, Midea Group, and Haier, are major players, capitalizing on cost-effective production, technological innovation, and extensive distribution networks. These companies have developed smart and AI-driven ductless mini splits that enhance energy efficiency and cater to China’s growing demand for smart home appliances.

India Ductless Mini Splits Market Trends

India is the fastest-growing market for ductless mini splits in the Asia Pacific region, fueled by rapid urban expansion, extreme climate conditions, and increasing disposable income levels. The rising adoption of energy-efficient air conditioning solutions is driven by government initiatives such as the Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) and subsidies for high-efficiency HVAC systems.

International brands like Daikin, Panasonic, and LG have a strong presence, but local manufacturers, such as Voltas and Blue Star, are also expanding their foothold by offering affordable, energy-efficient mini splits tailored to the Indian climate. The presence of low-cost manufacturing facilities and an extensive retail network enables these brands to cater to both urban and rural consumers, boosting market growth.

Market Players, Key Devlopment, and Competitive Intelligence

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Key Developments:

• In February 2025, Samsung Lennox HVAC North America, a joint venture announced in 2024, unveiled its first ductless heat pump offerings – the Samsung mini-split system and Varix VRF
• In April 2021, Durastar, a Ferguson heating and cooling brand, launched its line of mini-split systems on the Power Equipment Direct family of stores

Top Strategies Followed by Global Ductless Mini Splits Market Players

• Established Players: Leading manufacturers focus on technological advancements and strategic acquisitions to strengthen their market position. Mitsubishi Electric, Daikin Industries, and Carrier Global Corporation invest heavily in research and development (R&D) to develop high-efficiency inverter-based mini splits and smart HVAC systems integrated with AI and IoT.
  • For instance, Daikin launched its new R-32 refrigerant-based mini split systems to enhance energy efficiency and reduce environmental impact. Additionally, Mitsubishi Electric acquired Swedish HVAC firm AQS Produkter AB to expand its presence in the European market.
• Mid-level Players: Mid-sized manufacturers adopt cost-effective manufacturing, competitive pricing, and regional expansion to gain market traction. Companies like Gree Electric Appliances and Midea Group focus on high-volume production and affordable yet energy-efficient mini splits tailored to cost-sensitive markets.
  • Midea partnered with Honeywell to introduce next-generation eco-friendly refrigerant-based ACs in China. Similarly, Fujitsu General collaborates with U.S. distributors to expand its reach in North America while offering customized mini split solutions.
• Small-scale Players: Smaller players differentiate by targeting niche markets and specific customer needs. They emphasize localized product offerings, aftermarket services, and partnerships. For example, Blue Star Limited, an India-based brand, focuses on high-efficiency mini splits for extreme climates to cater to tropical and desert regions. Additionally, Panasonic India has partnered with Smart Home tech firms to integrate AI-based remote control solutions for mini splits, enhancing user experience and convenience.

Emerging Startups – Ductless Mini Splits Industry Ecosystem

• Innovative Technologies: Startups in the ductless mini splits market are leveraging AI, IoT, and automation to enhance efficiency and user experience. Sensibo, an Israel-based startup, has developed smart controllers for mini splits that integrate with AI-based climate control systems, optimizing energy consumption based on user behavior. Tado°, a Germany-based company, offers smart thermostats compatible with mini splits, allowing users to remotely control and automate their HVAC settings via mobile apps.
• Sustainable Solutions: Sustainability-focused startups are developing eco-friendly mini splits and energy-efficient solutions. Gradient, a U.S.-based startup, has launched a window-mounted ductless heat pump using low-Global Warming Potential (GWP) refrigerants to reduce carbon emissions while maintaining energy efficiency. Similarly, OxiCool, another U.S.-based startup, has developed water-based air conditioning technology that eliminates chemical refrigerants, aiming to disrupt the traditional HVAC industry with a greener alternative.
• Niche Targets: Some startups are focusing on specific market segments such as extreme climate solutions or affordable cooling for developing regions. Breezair, an Australia-based startup, specializes in evaporative cooling systems for hot and arid regions, providing an alternative to conventional mini splits. Envirosuite, a startup in Asia Pacific, works on air quality monitoring integrated with mini splits, offering data-driven purification systems tailored for high-pollution urban areas.

Market Report Scope

Market Dynamics

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Global Ductless Mini Splits Market Driver - Increasing Demand for Energy-Efficient HVAC Systems

The global ductless mini splits market is witnessing strong demand for energy-efficient heating and cooling solutions due to rising energy costs, stringent environmental regulations, and growing consumer awareness about sustainability. Governments worldwide are implementing energy efficiency standards and incentives to promote the adoption of high-Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (SEER) rated HVAC systems, which has significantly boosted the market for ductless mini splits. Unlike traditional central HVAC systems, ductless mini splits minimize energy loss by eliminating ductwork, allowing for precise temperature control and zoning capabilities that enhance overall efficiency. Additionally, the transition to eco-friendly refrigerants such as R-32 and R-410A, along with advancements in variable-speed inverter technology, has further strengthened the market’s appeal. As industries and residential consumers prioritize lower energy consumption and reduced carbon footprints, the demand for energy-efficient HVAC solutions, particularly ductless mini splits, is expected to grow exponentially.

Global Ductless Mini Splits Market Challenge - High Initial Installation Costs

Despite their numerous advantages, the high upfront cost of ductless mini split systems remains a major barrier to widespread adoption, particularly in price-sensitive markets. While ductless mini splits offer long-term energy savings, their initial purchase and installation expenses are often higher than traditional HVAC systems. Factors such as multiple indoor unit requirements, specialized installation needs, and refrigerant line setup contribute to increased costs. Additionally, skilled labor shortages in certain regions increase installation expenses, further limiting adoption among budget-conscious consumers. Small and medium-sized businesses, as well as residential homeowners, often face challenges in justifying the initial investment despite the long-term cost benefits. However, initiatives such as government rebates, tax incentives, and financing programs aimed at promoting energy-efficient appliances could help mitigate this restraint over time.

Global Ductless Mini Splits Market Opportunity - Technological Advancements in Smart HVAC Systems

Rapid advancements in smart HVAC technologies are creating new growth opportunities in the global ductless mini splits market. The integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT), and cloud-based control systems is transforming traditional mini split systems into intelligent, self-learning climate control solutions. Manufacturers are developing Wi-Fi-enabled ductless mini splits that allow users to remotely control temperature settings via smartphone apps, voice assistants, and automation platforms. AI-driven systems can analyze user behavior, optimize energy usage, and provide predictive maintenance alerts, enhancing convenience and efficiency. Additionally, sensor-based climate monitoring, geofencing, and occupancy detection features are becoming increasingly popular, offering consumers greater control over indoor air quality and comfort levels. As smart home adoption continues to rise and connectivity-driven HVAC solutions gain traction, the demand for technologically advanced ductless mini splits is expected to surge, presenting lucrative opportunities for market players.

Analyst Opinion (Expert Opinion)

• The global ductless mini splits market is poised for substantial growth, primarily driven by rising demand for energy-efficient HVAC systems and increasing adoption in residential and commercial applications. The push for sustainable solutions and government incentives for energy-efficient products further bolster market expansion.
• However, high initial costs and the complexity of installation in some settings could restrain market growth, particularly in cost-sensitive regions. Additionally, the lack of awareness in emerging markets may slow adoption.
• North America is expected to maintain its dominance in the market due to stringent regulations on energy efficiency, while the Asia Pacific region is projected to be the fastest-growing market, fueled by rapid urbanization, climate variability, and government initiatives promoting eco-friendly HVAC solutions.

Market Segmentation

• Type Insights (Revenue, USD Bn, 2020 - 2032)
• • Single-zone Mini Split
  • Multi-zone Mini Split
• Mounting Options Insights (Revenue, USD Bn, 2020 - 2032)
• • Wall-mounted Mini Split
  • Floor-mounted Mini Split
  • Ceiling Cassette Mini Split
• Regional Insights (Revenue, USD Bn, 2020 - 2032)
• • North America
    • U.S.
    • Canada
  • Latin America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Mexico
    • Rest of Latin America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • U.K.
    • Spain
    • France
    • Italy
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Australia
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN
    • Rest of Asia Pacific
  • Middle East
    • GCC Countries
    • Israel
    • Rest of Middle East
  • Africa
    • South Africa
    • North Africa
    • Central Africa
• Key Players Insights
• • Carrier Global Corporation
  • Mitsubishi Electric Corporation
  • Daikin Industries, Ltd.
  • LG Electronics Inc.
  • Panasonic Corporation
  • Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd.
  • Fujitsu General Limited
  • Midea Group Co., Ltd.
  • Johnson Controls International plc
  • Ramsond Corporation
  • Blue Star Limited
  • Sharp Corporation
  • MRCOOL
  • Haier Group Corporation
  • Gree Electric Appliances Inc.