BIO BASED ETHYLENE MARKET SIZE AND SHARE ANALYSIS - GROWTH TRENDS AND FORECASTS (2024-2031)

Bio Based Ethylene Market Size and Trends

Global bio based ethylene market is estimated to be valued at USD 570.3 Mn in 2024 and is expected to reach USD 892.1 Mn by 2031, exhibiting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% from 2024 to 2031.

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Due to rising demand for bio based and sustainable chemicals, the market can witness growth in both developing and developed economies.

Market Driver - Increasing demand for biofuels

Global biofuel market is rapidly expanding to meet the rising energy needs coupled with environmental concerns. With depleting fossil fuel reserves and growing worries over greenhouse gas emissions, various countries are turning towards sustainable bio-based alternatives. Bio-ethylene produced from biomass feedstock is increasingly being used as a substitute for petroleum-derived ethylene in industrial processes and manufacturing activities. Several end-use sectors such as packaging, automotive, construction uses bio-based polymers and materials.

Transportation industry has boosted demand as various nations put stringent renewable fuel blend mandates and initiate incentives for eco-friendly bio-jet and biodiesel. There has been increase in production of flex-fuel vehicles that can operated on gasoline-ethanol blends. Surging air passenger traffic prompt airlines to use bio based ethylene for aircraft components and parts manufacturing to lower their carbon footprint. Due to rising issues of energy security and climate change, many fuel distributors and refiners are investing in bio-ethylene production facilities near consumption centers.

International organizations prompt sustainable aviation fuels derived from biomass feedstock. This provides fillip to local bio-ethylene manufacturers. Furthermore, packaging converters are increasingly opting for home compostable and recyclable bioplastic films and containers containing bio-based ethylene to meet brand commitments towards sustainable development. Consumer shift towards eco-friendly products can drive the bio based ethylene market growth.

Market Concentration and Competitive Landscape

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Government regulations and policies supporting biofuels

Government legislations and incentives in various regions plays a pivotal role in boosting bio-based industrial economy. Stringent environmental protection laws and carbon emission reduction targets compel industries across Europe and North America to actively pursue renewable and recycled content options. Favorable regulatory frameworks providing capital subsidies and purchase guarantees have encouraged investments in bio-ethylene capacity additions.

Developing Asian countries with huge population like China and India have also introduced supportive biofuel blending mandates as part of their long-term strategy for energy security and self-sufficiency. Progressive biofuel promotion policies are stimulating local manufacturers to set up projects utilizing agriculture waste and wood residues as feedstock. Latin American governments incentivize sugarcane and corn ethanol production which creates promising market for bio-ethylene.

Some nations offer tax credits and exemptions on biofuel production. Producers also benefit from grants and low interest loans for setting up advanced bio-refineries. Favorable trade policies permit duty-free import of required biotechnology and process licensing. Complimentary initiatives like campaigns promoting biodegradable carrier bags and food packaging have raised commercial viability of bio-based products. With green growth prioritized on development agendas, adoption of policies advancing circular bioeconomy bodes well for global bio-ethylene industry.

Key Takeaways from Analyst:

Global bio based ethylene market growth will witness growth. North America and Europe currently dominate bio based ethylene production due to stringent environmental regulations and government push for renewable chemicals. However, Asia Pacific is expected to emerge as the fastest growing market. Rapid industrialization and growing petrochemical industry in China and India can boost demand for sustainable alternatives like bio based ethylene in the region.

Global bio based ethylene market growth is driven by factors like rising environmental concerns about petrochemicals, growing need for sustainable chemicals from end-use industries like packaging and automotive, and regulations to curb greenhouse emissions. Continuous technological advancements to produce bio based ethylene more efficiently through fermentation routes can also drive the market growth. However, high production costs compared to traditional petrochemical routes and supply constraints of raw materials can hamper the market during the forecast period.

Leading players are investing in R&D to commercialize advanced bio based production processes, which can help lower costs. Partnerships with agricultural firms for reliable feedstock supply can scale up capacities. Meanwhile, new applications of bio based ethylene in areas like renewable plastics and green solvents can offer growth opportunities for manufacturers.

Market Challenge - High production cost of bio-ethylene

Global bio based ethylene market growth can be hampered due to high production cost of bio-ethylene as compared to conventionally produce petroleum-based ethylene. Producing ethylene from biomass requires pretreatment of the feedstock, complex production processes such as fermentation and thermal cracking, and separation and purification of the product. All these steps are capital intensive and increases the cost of bio-ethylene. Production cost of bio-ethylene is estimated to be 2-3 times higher than petroleum-derived ethylene. This high cost makes it difficult for bio-ethylene producers to compete with petrochemical companies and reduces its market acceptance. However, continued research and development in developing low-cost production technologies through technological advancements and economic production at large commercial scales can help reduce the cost gap.

Market Opportunity - Potential substitute for petroleum-based ethylene

Global bio based ethylene market can witness growth opportunities due to its potential to emerge as a substitute for petroleum-based ethylene. Ethylene is a widely used basic petrochemical that serves as a building block for various plastics and polymers. However, over-reliance on non-renewable petroleum feedstock exposes the ethylene market to price volatilities in oil markets. Bio based ethylene produced from renewable biomass feedstocks such as sugarcane, corn, and agricultural residues provides an opportunity to partially substitute petrol-ethylene and decrease dependence on oil imports. This substitution can help insulate the ethylene market from oil price shocks. Moreover, bio-ethylene is considered more environment-friendly with a lower carbon footprint. This boosts its marketability among manufacturers targeting sustainability. Large multinational corporations have started exploring bio-ethylene production to diversify their feedstock sources.

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Insights, By Feedstock Type: Widespread availability and low production cost

In terms of feedstock type, sugarcane segment is estimated to contribute the highest market share of 40.4% in 2024. Sugarcane is the dominant feedstock for bio based ethylene production. Sugarcane cultivation is well-established across tropical regions globally, most notably Brazil, India, China, and Southeast Asia. The extensive existing farmland and agricultural infrastructure devoted to sugarcane in these nations allows for reliable and cost-effective sourcing of raw materials. Switching part of this sugarcane feedstock currently used for sugar production towards ethylene manufacturing leverages existing agricultural assets with minimal additional investment.

Compared to alternative feedstocks like corn and waste materials, sugarcane has higher sugar content per acre. This translates to higher yielding extraction of fermentable sugars used in biological ethylene production processes. Higher sugar yields lowers the processing and purification costs on as per ton of ethylene basis. Most sugarcane is produced on self-sufficient farms and collectives rather than large industrial monocultures. This distributed model of agriculture and minimal need for new farmland avoids many of the socio-economic and environmental concerns associated with other dedicated energy crops.

The warm climate conducive for sugarcane cultivation also allows for year-round harvesting as opposed to seasonal crops. Continuous raw material supply strengthens domestic ethylene manufacturing volume and export potential. Companies leveraging sugarcane are better positioned to secure long-term offtake agreements with polymer producers and ensure plant capacity utilization. Sugarcane's widespread availability, high yields, minimal carbon footprint, and all-weather harvests makes it the most attractive feedstock currently for bio based ethylene derivation through established fermentation technologies.

Insights, By Application: Durable Product Applications and Sustainability Branding Opportunities

In terms of application, plastics production segment is estimated to contribute the highest market share of 34.7% in 2024. Plastics end use dominates the bio based ethylene market, owing to tangible technical and marketing advantages over competing applications. Plastics made from bio-ethylene are molecularly identical to their fossil-fuel based counterparts yet offer the intrinsic environmental benefit of being renewably sourced. This allows plastic manufacturers to access the large and growing market for sustainable everyday products while meeting all performance specifications. Durable plastic applications in packaging, consumer goods, construction, and automotive experience minimal if any compromise from bio-substitutes.

Furthermore, brands across many industries are committing to fossil-fuel free product lines to meet heightened customer expectations for corporate environmental stewardship. Plastics fabricated from bio based ethylene enable clear resin identification and supply chain traceability back to verified sustainable feedstock sources. This creates valuable marketing opportunities to promote product sustainability credentials and appeal to eco-conscious buyers. As consumers increasingly prefer greener alternatives all else equal, bio-plastic access raises profitability of circular business models adopting renewable materials. With ongoing technological developments targeting cost parity, plastics production is optimized to capitalize on bio-ethylene's undiminished utility conjunct advantageous sustainability differentiation.

Regional Insights

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North America dominates the global bio based ethylene market with an estimated market revenue of 40.3% in 2024. The large production capacities of key players based in the U.S. and Canada have enabled economies of scale and made the region a hub for production and exports. The regional market has benefited from consistent policy support for biofuels and bioplastics, driving investments into infrastructure and innovation. Growing consumer preference for sustainability has boosted adoption of bio based ethylene across industries like packaging and automotive in North America.

Asia Pacific has emerged as the fastest growing regional market. Countries like China, India, Indonesia and Thailand are leading this growth due to their rising manufacturing sectors and growing populations. There has been huge demand for plastics and consumer goods in the region, and this offer opportunities for bio based alternatives. The governments of these developing nations are extensively supporting bioeconomy initiatives to strengthen domestic industries and reduce fossil fuel imports. Many Asian companies are actively collaborating with global leaders in bio based technologies to boost local manufacturing capabilities.

While North America dominates due to its early mover advantage, Asia Pacific market is poised to gradually narrow the gap. The competitive production costs and large domestic markets in Asia are attracting new capital investments. Forward-looking companies have already started setting up regional hubs to cater to the Asian customers. As more projects come online and the adoption rates improve across sectors like textiles, consumer goods and construction, there will be huge demand for bio based ethylene in Asia Pacific. With its industrious workforce and policy push for sustainability-driven growth, the region is ideally positioned to drive the next phase of expansion.

Market Report Scope

Bio Based Ethylene Industry News

• In June 2024, Technip Energies, a global leader in engineering and technology for the energy transition, announced its acquisition of advanced technology from Shell. This acquisition is aimed at accelerating the production of bio-polyesters. This strategic move is expected to enhance Technip Energies' capabilities in sustainable materials and contribute to  growing demand for eco-friendly alternatives in various industries.
• In March 2024, New Energy Blue, a leading renewable energy company, announced the launch of its new division, New Energy Chemicals. This strategic move aims to revolutionize the production of bio based ethylene, a crucial component for manufacturing carbon-zero sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and renewable plastics.
• In 2023, Braskem, a leading petrochemical company, and SCG Chemicals, a prominent player in the Thai chemical industry, announced a strategic partnership to advance a bio based ethylene project in Thailand. This partnership aims to leverage the strengths and expertise of both companies to develop sustainable solutions for the production of bio based chemicals and polymers.
• In 2022, INEOS, a leading global chemicals company, announced the launch of its new bio-attributed ethylene oxide, a groundbreaking product that completely substitutes fossil feedstock with renewable biomass. This innovative move marks a significant milestone in INEOS's commitment to sustainability and the development of eco-friendly chemical solutions.

*Definition: Global bio based ethylene market involves the production and sale of ethylene that is derived from renewable bio-based feedstocks rather than from traditional fossil fuel sources like petroleum and natural gas. Bio based ethylene is an environmentally-friendly alternative that can be used to manufacture various plastics, packaging materials, fibers and other chemical products. As concerns grow around the world about dependence on non-renewable resources and reducing carbon emissions, global bio based ethylene market will witness huge demand from industries.

Market Segmentation

• Feedstock Type Insights (Revenue, USD Mn, 2019 - 2031)
  • Sugarcane
  • Corn
  • Waste Materials
  • Others
•  Application Insights (Revenue, USD Mn, 2019 - 2031)
  • Plastics Production
  • Textiles
  • Automotive Parts
  • Others
• Regional Insights (Revenue, USD Mn 2019 - 2031)
  • North America
    • U.S.
    • Canada
  • Latin America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Mexico
    • Rest of Latin America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • U.K.
    • Spain
    • France
    • Italy
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Australia
    • South Korea
    • ASEAN
    • Rest of Asia Pacific
  • Middle East
    • GCC Countries
    • Israel
    • Rest of Middle East
  • Africa
    • South Africa
    • North Africa
    • Central Africa
• Key Players Insights
  • Braskem
  • SCG Chemicals
  • LyondellBasell
  • Cargill
  • Genomatica
  • BASF
  • Dow Chemical Company
  • Mitsubishi Chemical Corporation
  • NatureWorks LLC
  • Novamont
  • Corbion
  • Eastman Chemical Company
  • Reverdia
  • BioAmber
  • Green Biologics
  • Synlogic
  • Anellotech
  • Biomaterials Technologies
  • Avantium
  • Tetra Pak